Spartak Kostroma 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk

Spartak Kostroma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Volga Ulyanovsk

G. Kiselev 63'

L. Bagatelia 19'

5/4/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 11Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Kostroma27%

×Draw27%

Volga Ulyanovsk46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.38

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.38

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.25

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.50

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.25

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

54%

Spartak Kostroma or Volga Ulyanovsk

73%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

73%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

10%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

63%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

26%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

8%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

75%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

40%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

37%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.25 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.50 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

27%

level

27%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

46%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Murza

19'

L. Bagatelia

40'

Dmitri Rakhmanov← D. Novikov

46'

E. Kovalevskiy← K. Korolkov

46'

K. Chursin← D. Kaptilovich

63'

G. Kiselev

64'

D. Kamenshchikov← R. Minaev

64'

G. Uridia← A. Murza

71'

S. Bugriev← V. Demyanov

71'

D. Fayzullin← D. Sadov

75'

I. Kudryashov← D. Zhilmostnykh

79'

B. Bilalov← E. Voronin

79'

M. Novikov← M. Umnikov

Spartak

Volga

1

3

30

20

15

70

▼

Murza

28

▼

Novikov

7

⚽

Bagatelia

27

▼

Umnikov

37

▼

Voronin

14

▼

Minaev

68

Gaydash

4

Supranovi

5

▼

Zhilmostn

18

Ignatyev

14

▼

Kaptilovi

78

⚽

Kiselev

55

Saplinov

8

▼

Sadov

56

▼

Demyanov

10

▼

Korolkov

13

Rubtsov

46'▲E. Kovalevskiy←▼K. Korolkov

46'▲K. Chursin←▼D. Kaptilovich

71'▲S. Bugriev←▼V. Demyanov

71'▲D. Fayzullin←▼D. Sadov

75'▲I. Kudryashov←▼D. Zhilmostnykh

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

62Kovalevskiy69Chursin3Bugriev50Fayzullin24Kudryashov7Zhironkin23Chikanchi31Jobava40Genchu77Meshcheryakov91Kulikov

Manager: M. Belov

40'▲Dmitri Rakhmanov←▼D. Novikov

64'▲D. Kamenshchikov←▼R. Minaev

64'▲G. Uridia←▼A. Murza

79'▲B. Bilalov←▼E. Voronin

79'▲M. Novikov←▼M. Umnikov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

22Rakhmanov9Kamenshchikov10Uridia77Bilalov80Novikov4Maksimenkov8Rakhmanov47Kravtsov49Dyatlov86Shaykhutdinov99Polyakh