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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
10/12/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 13Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk53%
×Draw23%
Irtysh Omsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.80
Irtysh Omsk
1.12

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
2.22
Irtysh Omsk
1.13

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk
1.11
Irtysh Omsk
1.38

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw
76%
Volga Ulyanovsk or Irtysh Omsk
77%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
47%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
30%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
83%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
27%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
67%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
31%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
69%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
53%
level
23%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
24%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volga Ulyanovsk vs Irtysh Omsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Irtysh Omsk 5-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.