Volga Ulyanovsk 2–1 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

9/3/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 8Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk39%

×Draw30%

Irtysh Omsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.11

Irtysh Omsk

0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

0.89

creates per match

0.67

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.89

Irtysh Omsk

0.67

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.22

Irtysh Omsk

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Irtysh Omsk

70%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

61%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

16%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

67%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

30%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

10%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

61%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

25%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

56%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.89 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.67 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

39%

level

30%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

31%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff