Irtysh Omsk 0–1 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Volga Ulyanovsk

8/17/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk28%

×Draw29%

Volga Ulyanovsk43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.26

Irtysh Omsk

0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.26

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.19

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.33

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.19

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

57%

Irtysh Omsk or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

72%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

10%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

61%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

25%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

7%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

72%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

36%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

39%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

28%

level

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

43%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff