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Irtysh Omsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
10/29/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 16Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk28%
×Draw33%
Volga Ulyanovsk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
0.78
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.78
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.22
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
60%
Irtysh Omsk or Volga Ulyanovsk
67%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
72%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
9%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
54%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
18%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
4%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
63%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
26%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
41%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.78 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.78 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
28%
level
33%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
40%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Irtysh Omsk and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda in Omsk.