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Vitoria vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
Ze Marcos 19'
10/2/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 26Barradao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Vitoria48%
×Draw27%
Ceara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.39
Ceara
0.93

Vitoria creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.33
Ceara
0.91

allows per match

Vitoria
0.95
Ceara
1.45

finishing

Vitoria-0.07on par
Ceara-0.21scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
75%
Vitoria or Ceara
73%
Draw or Ceara
52%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
23%
Ceara wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
75%
Vitoria 2+ goals
40%
Vitoria 3+ goals
16%
Ceara 1+ goals
61%
Ceara 2+ goals
24%
Ceara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
65%
Ceara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 35 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.33 + Ceara defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ceara attack 0.91 + Vitoria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vitoria scores more
48%
level
27%
Ceara scores more
25%

Vitoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Ze MarcosVitoriaVitoria · D
8.2

Match Events

19'
Ze Marcos↳ Lucas Halter
46'
Vina← Richardson
47'
Vina
52'
Raúl Cáceres
55'
Matheuzinho← A. Cantalapiedra
55'
Osvaldo← Erick
63'
Vinicius Zanocelo← Fernando Sobral
63'
Paulo Baya← A. Galeano
72'
Pepe← Ronald Lopes
72'
R. Lopez← Renato Kayzer
72'
Aylon← Pedro Henrique
76'
Renzo López
81'
Claudinho← R. Caceres
82'
Lucas Mugni← Lourenco
86'
Ramon
90+5'
Zé Marcos

Possession

37%Vitoria

Shots

9Vitoria

Pass accuracy

48%Vitoria

Statistics

VitoriaCeara
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots13
2.12Expected Goals (xG)0.52
6Corners3
14Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target3
4Off Target9
2Blocked1
8Inside Box8
1Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
277Total Passes479
219Accurate Passes409
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.09Goals Prevented0.09
Discipline
14Fouls15
4Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Ceara

Vitoria beat Ceara 1-0 in Serie A on October 2, 2025.

Goals: Ze Marcos (19').

Ceara controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Barradao in Salvador.