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Ceara vs Vitoria — Serie B 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
Wagner Leonardo 62'
José Hugo 49'
5/10/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 4Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ceara45%
×Draw28%
Vitoria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.31
Vitoria
0.93

Ceara creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.37
Vitoria
0.98

allows per match

Ceara
0.87
Vitoria
1.24

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
73%
Ceara or Vitoria
72%
Draw or Vitoria
55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
21%
Vitoria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
73%
Ceara 2+ goals
38%
Ceara 3+ goals
14%
Vitoria 1+ goals
61%
Vitoria 2+ goals
24%
Vitoria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
63%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.87 · 52 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.37 + Vitoria defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vitoria attack 0.98 + Ceara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more
45%
level
28%
Vitoria scores more
27%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
José HugoVitoriaVitoria · M
7.9

Match Events

45'
Guilherme Castilho
46'
Diego Fumaça← Léo Gomes
49'
José Hugo
52'
Vitor Gabriel
56'
Jean Carlos← Richardson
56'
Thiago Lopes← Giovanni Augusto
57'
Luvannor← Janderson
62'
Wagner Leonardo↳ Osvaldo
68'
Chay← Warley
68'
Caíque← Erick
72'
Matheuzinho← José Hugo
72'
Gegê← Osvaldo
77'
Nicolas← Vitor Gabriel
88'
Zeca
89'
Nicolas
89'
Railan← Zeca

Possession

66%Ceara

Shots

10Ceara

Pass accuracy

53%Ceara

Statistics

CearaVitoria
Overview
66%Possession34%
10Total Shots10
8Corners3
24Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots10
1On Target5
5Off Target2
4Blocked3
3Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
66%Possession34%
539Total Passes288
476Accurate Passes224
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
24Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Ceara vs Vitoria

Vitoria beat Ceara 2-0 in Serie B on May 10, 2023.

Goals: José Hugo (49'), Wagner Leonardo (62').

Ceara controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas in Fortaleza, Ceará.