Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ceara vs Vitoria — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
Marllon 53'
5/3/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 7Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara47%
×Draw29%
Vitoria23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.27
Vitoria
0.80

Ceara creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.12
Vitoria
0.86

allows per match

Ceara
0.74
Vitoria
1.43

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par
Vitoria+0.11scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
77%
Ceara or Vitoria
71%
Draw or Vitoria
53%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
22%
Vitoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
72%
Ceara 2+ goals
36%
Ceara 3+ goals
14%
Vitoria 1+ goals
55%
Vitoria 2+ goals
19%
Vitoria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
67%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Vitoria defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vitoria attack 0.86 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ceara scores more
47%
level
29%
Vitoria scores more
23%

Ceara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Lucas MugniCearaCeara · M
8.5

Match Events

37'
Lucas Braga
46'
R. Ramos← Fabiano
53'
Matheuzinho
53'
Marllon↳ Lucas Mugni
59'
Wellington Rato← Ricardo Ryller
59'
Leo Pereira← Carlinhos
59'
Erick← Lucas Braga
73'
Romulo← Lucas Mugni
79'
Bruno Tubarao← A. Galeano
79'
Lele← Pedro Raul
85'
Fabricio← Matheuzinho
90+2'
Claudinho
90+3'
Nicolas← Pedro Henrique
90+5'
Edu← Neris

Possession

50%Ceara

Shots

18Ceara

Pass accuracy

49%Ceara

Statistics

CearaVitoria
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots12
1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.92
3Corners3
15Fouls31
Shots
18Total Shots12
8On Target3
6Off Target6
4Blocked3
12Inside Box7
6Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
334Total Passes330
260Accurate Passes271
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
0.69Goals Prevented0.69
Discipline
15Fouls31
0Yellow Cards3
5Offsides3

Match Recap: Ceara vs Vitoria

Ceara beat Vitoria 1-0 in Serie A on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Marllon (53').

Ceara controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas in Fortaleza.