Vitoria 1–0 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vitoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceara

Léo Gamalho 13' (pen)

8/13/2023

Serie B · Round 23Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vitoria47%

×Draw28%

Ceara25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.87

Vitoria

1.30

Ceara

0.87

Vitoria creates 49% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

1.08

0.66

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Vitoria

1.21

Ceara

1.08

allows per match

Vitoria

0.66

Ceara

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

75%

Vitoria or Ceara

72%

Draw or Ceara

53%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

22%

Ceara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

73%

Vitoria 2+ goals

37%

Vitoria 3+ goals

14%

Ceara 1+ goals

58%

Ceara 2+ goals

22%

Ceara 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

65%

Ceara (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 58 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.21 + Ceara defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ceara attack 1.08 + Vitoria defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vitoria scores more

47%

level

28%

Ceara scores more

25%

Vitoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Lucas Arcanjo

Vitoria · G

8.3

Match Events

13'

Léo GamalhoPenalty

17'

Breno

25'

Paulo Victor

29'

Bissoli← Nicolas

45+2'

Camutanga

46'

Zeca← Camutanga

46'

Wellington Nem← Giovanni Augusto

46'

Zé Ricardo← Breno

46'

Willian Formiga← Paulo Victor

50'

Zé Hugo← Iury Castilho

62'

Dudu

66'

Chrystian Barletta← Erick

67'

Yan Souto

69'

Guilherme Bissoli

74'

Warley

78'

Guilherme Castilho← Jean Carlos

81'

Jhonny Lucas← Matheus Trindade

82'

85'

88'

90+7'

90+7'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaCeara

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots20

1.82Expected Goals (xG)1.18

4Corners9

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots20

2On Target6

2Off Target7

4Blocked7

4Inside Box12

4Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

243Total Passes486

167Accurate Passes402

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls17

6Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Ceara

Vitoria beat Ceara 1-0 in Serie B on August 13, 2023.

Goals: Léo Gamalho (13' pen).

Ceara controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, Bahia.

Vitoria vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Ceara