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Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
Preview
11:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
3/13/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Noevir Stadium
Big match
52%
Vissel Kobe
model favours
52%26%22%

Vissel Kobe score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Vissel Kobe52%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
0.87

Vissel Kobe creates 75% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.77
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
78%
Vissel Kobe or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
48%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
27%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
45%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
20%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
58%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
22%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
71%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.52 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
52%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
22%

Vissel Kobe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Vissel Kobe win just 29% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Vissel Kobe
Balanced
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
52%Possession50%
72%Pass accuracy79%
13.6Shots13.3
1.66xGBiggest gap1.35
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Vissel KobeShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Vissel Kobe
0
Draws
2
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
2–00–12–12–32–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Kobe
LWWDW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vissel Kobe face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Vissel Kobe hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts March 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vissel Kobe host Shimizu S-pulse at Noevir Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.