Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vissel Kobe

Oh Se-Hun 55' (pen)

2/21/2026

J1 League · Round 3IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse32%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.38

Shimizu S-pulse

1.18

Vissel Kobe

1.38

Vissel Kobe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.21

creates per match

1.22

1.54

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.21

Vissel Kobe

1.22

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.54

Vissel Kobe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

59%

Shimizu S-pulse or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

68%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

69%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

33%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

12%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

75%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

40%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

44%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.21 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Vissel Kobe attack 1.22 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

32%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

41%

Vissel Kobe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

R. Komatsu

Vissel Kobe · F

7.3

Match Events

19'

Tetsushi Yamakawa

22'

B. Nduka← T. Inui

25'

Haruto Hidaka

31'

Yosuke Ideguchi

52'

Kazuki KozukaPenalty confirmed

55'

Oh Se-HunPenalty

71'

Park Seung-Wook← H. Hidaka

71'

K. Hamasaki← Y. Ideguchi

72'

Jean Patric← R. Komatsu

74'

Yutaka Yoshida

76'

Thuler

78'

Z. Uno← K. Kozuka

78'

T. Takahashi← K. Chiba

83'

K. Yamada← R. Hirose

83'

Y. Goke← Y. Kuwasaki

89'

Toshiki Takahashi

90+2'

A. Stephens← Capixaba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuVissel

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots6

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.31

9Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

3On Target1

6Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box0

Passing

52%Possession48%

298Total Passes285

203Accurate Passes183

68%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3