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Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Y. Ōsako 90+2'
K. Yuruki 8'
Thiago Santana 66'
7/6/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Vissel Kobe51%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.51
Shimizu S-pulse
0.90

Vissel Kobe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.77
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
78%
Vissel Kobe or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
49%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
26%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
44%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
59%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
23%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
70%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.52 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
51%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
22%

Vissel Kobe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Y. ŌsakoVissel KobeVissel Kobe · F
7.5

Match Events

8'
K. Yuruki
66'
Thiago Santana
67'
D. Sasaki← Y. Oda
67'
Y. Ōsako← Andrés Iniesta
67'
B. Kololli← K. Nishizawa
77'
Y. Nakasaka← K. Yuruki
77'
D. Matsuoka← Carlinhos Júnior
90+4'
Y. Goke← Y. Muto
90'
Oh Se-Hun← Y. Kamiya
90+2'
Y. Ōsako

Possession

52%Vissel

Shots

13Vissel

Pass accuracy

50%Vissel

Statistics

VisselShimizu
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots7
2Corners1
11Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target2
5Off Target3
3Blocked2
8Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
532Total Passes483
466Accurate Passes418
88%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Offsides2

J1 League: Vissel Kobe 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse

Vissel Kobe beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 in J1 League on July 6, 2022.

Goals: K. Yuruki (8'), Thiago Santana (66'), Y. Ōsako (90+2').

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.