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Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
T. Ogihara 61' (pen)
K. Nagato 28'
4/1/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Vissel Kobe51%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.51
Shimizu S-pulse
0.90

Vissel Kobe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.77
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
78%
Vissel Kobe or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
49%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
26%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
44%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
59%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
23%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
70%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.52 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
51%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
22%

Vissel Kobe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. ThulerVissel KobeVissel Kobe · D
7.9

Match Events

28'
K. Nagato↳ Y. Ideguchi
35'
Jean Patric← R. Hirose
46'
Y. Osako← R. Komatsu
46'
K. Inoue← K. Chiba
46'
M. Brunetti← Capixaba
56'
Y. Shimamoto← H. Nakahara
61'
T. OgiharaPenalty
68'
M. Yumiba← K. Kozuka
74'
Kenta Inoue
79'
T. Inui← K. Nagato
79'
H. Hidaka← Y. Yoshida
90+5'
Thuler
90+3'
G. Sakai← N. Iino
90+3'
Y. Kuwasaki← Y. Ideguchi

Possession

47%Vissel

Shots

9Vissel

Pass accuracy

49%Vissel

Statistics

VisselShimizu
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots5
0Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots5
3On Target2
3Off Target1
3Blocked2
6Inside Box2
3Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
410Total Passes450
283Accurate Passes324
69%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse

Vissel Kobe beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-0 in J1 League on April 1, 2026.

Goals: K. Nagato (28'), T. Ogihara (61' pen).

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.