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Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
G. Sakai 90'
Y. Kuwasaki 65'
K. Kozuka 40'
9/27/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Vissel Kobe52%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
0.87

Vissel Kobe creates 75% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.52
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.77
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
78%
Vissel Kobe or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
48%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
27%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
45%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
20%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
58%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
22%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
71%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.52 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
52%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
22%

Vissel Kobe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
G. SakaiVissel KobeVissel Kobe · D
8.0

Match Events

37'
Thuler
40'
K. Kozuka↳ R. Yamahara
46'
Matheus Bueno
46'
Y. Muto← H. Ide
60'
S. Yajima← K. Kozuka
65'
Y. Kuwasaki↳ Y. Osako
70'
S. Takagi← Y. Yoshida
70'
Z. Uno← M. Yumiba
78'
K. Yuruki← Erik
82'
K. Kitagawa← T. Inui
82'
A. Stephens← T. Takahashi
86'
N. Iino← Y. Kuwasaki
86'
R. Komatsu← T. Miyashiro
90+3'
Y. Honda← K. Nagato
90'
G. Sakai↳ R. Komatsu

Possession

62%Vissel

Shots

22Vissel

Pass accuracy

55%Vissel

Statistics

VisselShimizu
Overview
62%Possession38%
22Total Shots10
2.83Expected Goals (xG)1.02
6Corners2
6Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots10
6On Target2
10Off Target6
6Blocked2
18Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
484Total Passes306
367Accurate Passes190
76%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-pulse

Vissel Kobe beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 in J1 League on September 27, 2025.

Goals: K. Kozuka (40'), Y. Kuwasaki (65'), G. Sakai (90').

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (62%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.