Vissel Kobe 0–1 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albirex Niigata

M. Hasegawa 12'

4/6/2025

J1 League · Round 9New National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Vissel Kobe49%

×Draw27%

Albirex Niigata24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.91

Vissel Kobe

1.43

Albirex Niigata

0.91

Vissel Kobe creates 57% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.62

creates per match

1.01

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.62

Albirex Niigata

1.01

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.81

Albirex Niigata

1.23

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.02on par

Albirex Niigata-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

76%

Vissel Kobe or Albirex Niigata

73%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

51%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

24%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

76%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

42%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

17%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

60%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

23%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

67%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.81 · 28 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.62 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Albirex Niigata attack 1.01 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

49%

level

27%

Albirex Niigata scores more

24%

Vissel Kobe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

M. Hasegawa

Albirex Niigata · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

M. Hasegawa↳ Y. Hoshi

60'

Gustavo Klismahn← Y. Ideguchi

60'

Erik← Y. Muto

73'

M. Fitzgerald← H. Inamura

76'

D. Sasaki← Y. Osako

81'

F. Hayakawa← Y. Horigome

81'

K. Yamura← Y. Ono

83'

Caetano← R. Hirose

83'

Y. Kuwasaki← K. Yuruki

90+2'

K. Kasai← M. Hasegawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselAlbirex

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots6

1.63Expected Goals (xG)0.85

3Corners4

2Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots6

3On Target2

7Off Target3

5Blocked1

13Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

620Total Passes386

516Accurate Passes286

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

2Fouls8

0Offsides4