Albirex Niigata 0–1 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vissel Kobe

Y. Osako 15'

7/7/2023

J1 League · Round 20Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Albirex Niigata32%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.47

Albirex Niigata

1.25

Vissel Kobe

1.47

Vissel Kobe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.28

creates per match

1.58

1.35

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.28

Vissel Kobe

1.58

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.35

Vissel Kobe

1.23

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.24scores less

Vissel Kobe+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

58%

Albirex Niigata or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

68%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

14%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

71%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

13%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

77%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

43%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

43%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 28 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.23 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.28 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vissel Kobe attack 1.58 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

32%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

42%

Vissel Kobe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Maekawa

Vissel Kobe · G

8.5

Match Events

15'

Y. Osako↳ Y. Muto

21'

N. Iino← Matheus Thuler

46'

H. Akiyama← Y. Hoshi

66'

Jean Patrick← K. Yuruki

72'

Hiroki AkiyamaCard reviewed

74'

Hiroki Akiyama

75'

Gustavo Nescau← K. Taniguchi

75'

S. Ota← E. Matsuda

81'

S. Kawasaki← D. Sasaki

85'

Y. Shimada← T. Ko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexVissel

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots6

1.54Expected Goals (xG)1.06

3Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots6

6On Target2

3Off Target3

10Blocked1

6Inside Box5

13Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

547Total Passes388

459Accurate Passes317

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2