Vissel Kobe 3–2 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Albirex Niigata

R. Endo 55' (OG)

T. Miyashiro 25'

D. Sasaki 15'

R. Endo 76'

S. Fujiwara 51'

5/6/2024

J1 League · Round 12NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Vissel Kobe48%

×Draw26%

Albirex Niigata25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.98

Vissel Kobe

1.46

Albirex Niigata

0.98

Vissel Kobe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.63

creates per match

1.12

0.83

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.63

Albirex Niigata

1.12

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.83

Albirex Niigata

1.30

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.06on par

Albirex Niigata-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

75%

Vissel Kobe or Albirex Niigata

74%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

52%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

24%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

77%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

43%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

18%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

62%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

26%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

66%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.63 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Albirex Niigata attack 1.12 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

48%

level

26%

Albirex Niigata scores more

25%

Vissel Kobe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Y. Ideguchi

Vissel Kobe · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

K. Suzuki← Y. Takagi

15'

D. Sasaki

25'

T. Miyashiro↳ Jean Patrick

51'

S. Fujiwara↳ M. Hasegawa

55'

R. EndoOwn goal

60'

Y. Muto← N. Iino

60'

60'

64'

64'

65'

J. Okumura← Y. Shimada

72'

H. Yamaguchi← Y. Kuwasaki

76'

R. Endo↳ M. Fitzgerald

82'

K. Yamauchi← T. Miyashiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselAlbirex

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots10

2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.59

6Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target3

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

365Total Passes678

285Accurate Passes592

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Offsides2