Albirex Niigata 2–2 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vissel Kobe

Y. Wakatsuki 90'

T. Shimamura 74'

Y. Osako 52' (pen), 45'

10/26/2025

J1 League · Round 35Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Albirex Niigata32%

×Draw25%

Vissel Kobe42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Albirex Niigata

1.25

Vissel Kobe

1.48

Vissel Kobe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.28

creates per match

1.65

1.31

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.28

Vissel Kobe

1.65

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.31

Vissel Kobe

1.23

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.20scores less

Vissel Kobe+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

58%

Albirex Niigata or Vissel Kobe

75%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

68%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

14%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

71%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

13%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

77%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

43%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

43%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.23 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.28 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vissel Kobe attack 1.65 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

32%

level

25%

Vissel Kobe scores more

42%

Vissel Kobe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Osako

Vissel Kobe · F

8.7

Match Events

45'

Y. Osako↳ T. Miyashiro

46'

D. Sasaki← H. Ide

48'

Takuya Shimamura

50'

Taisei MiyashiroPenalty confirmed

51'

Soya Fujiwara

52'

Y. OsakoPenalty

62'

Moraes← A. Boudah

62'

R. Hirose← N. Iino

74'

Y. Horigome← K. Hashimoto

74'

Y. Takagi← J. Okumura

74'

Y. Wakatsuki← K. Taniguchi

74'

T. Shimamura↳ Moraes

75'

Y. Ideguchi← Y. Kuwasaki

81'

Y. Honda← K. Nagato

81'

K. Yuruki← T. Miyashiro

90+4'

Takahiro Ogihara

90'

Y. Wakatsuki↳ M. Hasegawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexVissel

Overview

53%Possession47%

6Total Shots18

1.10Expected Goals (xG)3.94

6Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots18

4On Target7

1Off Target6

1Blocked5

5Inside Box15

1Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

539Total Passes474

436Accurate Passes367

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1