Viking 5–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Valerenga

K. Askildsen 72'

K. Haugen 54'

Z. Tripic 45'

M. Roseth 15'

E. Austbo 10'

E. Hagen 50'

11/30/2025

Eliteserien · Round 30Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Viking54%

×Draw23%

Valerenga24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.17

Viking

1.87

Valerenga

1.17

Viking creates 60% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

2.12

creates per match

1.18

1.16

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Viking

2.12

Valerenga

1.18

allows per match

Viking

1.16

Valerenga

1.61

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Viking+0.69scores more

Valerenga-0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw

76%

Viking or Valerenga

77%

Draw or Valerenga

46%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

30%

Valerenga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

85%

Viking 2+ goals

56%

Viking 3+ goals

29%

Valerenga 1+ goals

69%

Valerenga 2+ goals

33%

Valerenga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

69%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.12 + Valerenga defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

Valerenga attack 1.18 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viking scores more

54%

level

23%

Valerenga scores more

24%

Viking at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripic

Viking · M

9.2

Match Events

10'

E. Austbo↳ G. Stensness

15'

M. Roseth↳ Z. Tripic

24'

Petter Strand

45+3'

Zlatko TripićPenalty confirmed

45+3'

Hakon Sjatil

45'

Z. Tripic

50'

E. Hagen↳ V. Hedenstad

54'

K. Haugen↳ Z. Tripic

61'

H. Heggheim← S. Bjorshol

61'

J. Hansen← S. Kvia-Egeskog

66'

P. Meliga← E. Sorensen

66'

N. Pallas← H. Sjatil

72'

K. Askildsen↳ K. Haugen

74'

H. J. Haugen← E. Austbo

74'

A. Baertelsen← M. Roseth

74'

K. Tshiembe← A. Olsen

74'

S. Sjovold← C. Lange

75'

Joe Bell

78'

R. Alte← K. Askildsen

83'

Promise Meliga

88'

O. Obasi← P. Strand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingValerenga

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots10

2.27Expected Goals (xG)1.27

6Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked1

12Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

320Total Passes369

237Accurate Passes280

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1