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Viking vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valerenga
Valerenga
E. Bitri 63' (OG)
C. Borchgrevink 86'
9/2/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Viking54%
×Draw22%
Valerenga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.90
Valerenga
1.17

Viking creates 62% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

Viking
2.14
Valerenga
1.18

allows per match

Viking
1.16
Valerenga
1.66

finishing

Viking+0.61scores more
Valerenga-0.01on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Valerenga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw
77%
Viking or Valerenga
78%
Draw or Valerenga
46%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
31%
Valerenga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
85%
Viking 2+ goals
56%
Viking 3+ goals
29%
Valerenga 1+ goals
69%
Valerenga 2+ goals
33%
Valerenga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
70%
Valerenga (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 28 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.66 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.14 + Valerenga defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.90

Valerenga attack 1.18 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viking scores more
54%
level
22%
Valerenga scores more
23%

Viking at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Z. TripićVikingViking · F
7.7

Match Events

18'
Magnus Riisnaes
63'
E. BitriOwn goal
70'
Y. de Lanlay← S. Svendsen
70'
C. Borchgrevink← Vitinho
83'
H. Tangen← J. Bell
83'
N. D'Agostino← L. Salvesen
86'
C. Borchgrevink
90+5'
Fredrik Jensen
90+1'
H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol
90+1'
S. Adegbenro← P. Yazbek
90+1'
T. Børven← A. Ilić
90+6'
A. Kiil Olsen← M. Ofkir

Possession

67%Viking

Shots

14Viking

Pass accuracy

55%Viking

Statistics

VikingValerenga
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots10
2.65Expected Goals (xG)1.31
9Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target2
7Off Target7
4Blocked1
11Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
657Total Passes332
575Accurate Passes244
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Viking vs Valerenga

Viking and Valerenga drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 2, 2023.

Goals: E. Bitri (63' o.g.), C. Borchgrevink (86').

Viking controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.