Valerenga 3–1 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viking

H. Bjordal 79', 66'

E. Sorensen 41'

H. Mikaelsson 62'

3/30/2025

Eliteserien · Round 1Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Valerenga29%

×Draw24%

Viking47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.74

Valerenga

1.33

Viking

1.74

Viking creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

1.58

creates per match

1.76

1.72

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Valerenga

1.58

Viking

1.76

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Viking

1.07

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.42scores more

Viking+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

53%

Valerenga or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

71%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

13%

Viking wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

74%

Valerenga 2+ goals

38%

Valerenga 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

38%

Viking (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.72 · 21 matches

Viking away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.07 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.58 + Viking defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Viking attack 1.76 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valerenga scores more

29%

level

24%

Viking scores more

47%

Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Bjordal

Valerenga · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

Henrik Heggheim

34'

Zlatko Tripić

40'

Muamer Brajanac

41'

E. Sorensen↳ F. Ambina

50'

50'

57'

57'

62'

H. Mikaelsson↳ E. Austbo

66'

H. Bjordal↳ M. Riisnaes

73'

K. Askildsen← E. Austbo

73'

J. Urbancic← C. Cappis

73'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← S. Svendsen

73'

P. Christiansen← H. Mikaelsson

78'

P. Strand← M. Riisnaes

78'

F. Thorvaldsen← E. Sorensen

79'

H. Bjordal↳ F. Ambina

83'

Carl Lange

86'

M. Rijks← M. Brajanac

86'

E. Hagen← C. Lange

86'

Y. de Lanlay← J. Bell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaViking

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots13

1.74Expected Goals (xG)2.16

8Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots13

5On Target5

6Off Target4

5Blocked4

8Inside Box8

8Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

332Total Passes314

272Accurate Passes233

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0