Valerenga 1–2 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Viking

S. Strandberg 85' (pen)

N. Sandberg 90+7'

L. Salvesen 19'

7/1/2023

Eliteserien · Round 12Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Valerenga29%

×Draw24%

Viking47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.73

Valerenga

1.31

Viking

1.73

Viking creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

1.57

creates per match

1.75

1.70

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Valerenga

1.57

Viking

1.75

allows per match

Valerenga

1.70

Viking

1.05

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.38scores more

Viking+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

53%

Valerenga or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

71%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

12%

Viking wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

73%

Valerenga 2+ goals

38%

Valerenga 3+ goals

14%

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

38%

Viking (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Viking away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.57 + Viking defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Viking attack 1.75 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valerenga scores more

29%

level

24%

Viking scores more

47%

Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

N. Sandberg

Viking · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Patrick Yazbek

19'

L. Salvesen↳ Z. Tripić

21'

Fredrik Jensen

31'

David Brekalo

61'

Simen Juklerød

64'

F. Thorvaldsen← D. Håkans

64'

T. Børven← S. Jatta

68'

H. Tangen← S. Svendsen

68'

N. D'Agostino← L. Salvesen

74'

Mohamed Ofkir

76'

J. Eng← M. Ofkir

79'

V. Vevatne← D. Brekalo

83'

Zlatko Tripić

83'

Djibril Diop

85'

S. StrandbergPenalty

90+5'

Fredrik Jensen

90+3'

Nicholas D'Agostino

90+6'

L. Zuta← M. Riisnæs

90'

N. Sandberg← P. Yazbek

90+7'

N. Sandberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaViking

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots8

5Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

550Total Passes360

486Accurate Passes286

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1