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Viking vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
J. Hansen 38'
7/5/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 12Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Viking63%
×Draw20%
Stromsgodset18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
2.18
Stromsgodset
1.06

Viking creates 106% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Viking
2.14
Stromsgodset
0.97

allows per match

Viking
1.16
Stromsgodset
2.22

finishing

Viking+0.61scores more
Stromsgodset+0.23scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viking or draw
82%
Viking or Stromsgodset
80%
Draw or Stromsgodset
37%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
39%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
89%
Viking 2+ goals
64%
Viking 3+ goals
37%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
65%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
29%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
78%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 28 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.14 + Stromsgodset defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.18

Stromsgodset attack 0.97 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Viking scores more
63%
level
20%
Stromsgodset scores more
18%

Viking at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. RosethVikingViking · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
B. Sormo← L. Vilsvik
38'
J. Hansen↳ E. Austbo
57'
F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa← M. Mehnert
62'
H. J. Haugen← S. Bjorshol
62'
S. Kvia-Egeskog← E. Austbo
71'
S. Svendsen← P. Christiansen
86'
S. A. Marcello Silalahi← K. Krasniqi
88'
A. Baertelsen← K. Askildsen
88'
V. Vevatne← V. Auklend

Possession

66%Viking

Shots

20Viking

Pass accuracy

54%Viking

Statistics

VikingStromsgodset
Overview
66%Possession34%
20Total Shots2
2.61Expected Goals (xG)0.07
16Corners2
11Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots2
5On Target1
11Off Target0
4Blocked1
13Inside Box2
7Outside Box0
Passing
66%Possession34%
609Total Passes329
544Accurate Passes248
89%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Offsides4

Eliteserien: Viking 1–0 Stromsgodset

Viking beat Stromsgodset 1-0 in Eliteserien on July 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Hansen (38').

Viking controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 2.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.