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Stromsgodset vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Viking
Viking
L. Salvesen 53'
5/12/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Stromsgodset32%
×Draw23%
Viking45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.46
Viking
1.77

Viking creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.86
Viking
1.75

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.80
Viking
1.05

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.61scores less
Viking+0.25scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Viking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
55%
Stromsgodset or Viking
77%
Draw or Viking
68%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
15%
Viking wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
77%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
43%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
18%
Viking 1+ goals
83%
Viking 2+ goals
53%
Viking 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
42%
Viking (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.80 · 28 matches

Viking away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.86 + Viking defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.46

Viking attack 1.75 + Stromsgodset defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
32%
level
23%
Viking scores more
45%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71
G. ValsvikStromsgodsetStromsgodset · D
8.2

Match Events

46'
S. Auklend← P. Yazbek
53'
L. Salvesen
56'
Lars-Jørgen SalvesenGoal confirmed
57'
E. Melkersen← M. Mehnert
72'
S. Westerlund← L. Tómasson
72'
J. Therkelsen← H. Stengel
79'
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund
80'
N. D'Agostino← Z. Tripić
89'
K. Paulsen← L. Salvesen
90+7'
Eirik Andersen
90'
Marko Farji
90+2'
Sondre Auklend
90+6'
V. Auklend← P. Christiansen
90+6'
Y. de Lanlay← H. Haugen

Possession

45%Stromsgodset

Shots

18Stromsgodset

Pass accuracy

50%Stromsgodset

Statistics

StromsgodsetViking
Overview
45%Possession55%
18Total Shots9
1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.96
8Corners3
7Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots9
3On Target3
9Off Target3
6Blocked3
12Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
371Total Passes467
294Accurate Passes371
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Viking

Viking beat Stromsgodset 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Salvesen (53').

Viking controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.