Stromsgodset 1–0 Viking: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viking

E. Melkersen 29'

10/29/2023

Eliteserien · Round 26Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Stromsgodset33%

×Draw23%

Viking44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.76

Stromsgodset

1.48

Viking

1.76

Viking creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.89

creates per match

1.76

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.89

Viking

1.76

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.76

Viking

1.07

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.61scores less

Viking+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

56%

Stromsgodset or Viking

77%

Draw or Viking

67%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

77%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

43%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

19%

Viking 1+ goals

83%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

42%

Viking (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Viking away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.07 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.89 + Viking defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Viking attack 1.76 + Stromsgodset defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

33%

level

23%

Viking scores more

44%

Viking at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Myhra

Stromsgodset · G

8.5

Match Events

29'

E. Melkersen↳ L. Vilsvik

43'

Elias Hoff Melkersen

46'

S. Langås← D. Brekalo

46'

S. Svendsen← H. Tangen

46'

J. Bell← P. Yazbek

71'

H. Stenevik← E. Melkersen

72'

H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol

76'

S. Adegbenro← L. Salvesen

78'

Kreshnik Krasniqi

80'

J. Therkelsen← E. Andersen

86'

Herman Stengel

90+2'

Samuel Adegbenro

90+3'

T. Grøgaard← L. Tómasson

90+3'

O. Enersen← M. Mehnert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetViking

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots17

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.20

3Corners8

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots17

3On Target6

7Off Target6

4Blocked5

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

425Total Passes568

335Accurate Passes474

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Viking

Stromsgodset beat Viking 1-0 in Eliteserien on October 29, 2023.

Goals: E. Melkersen (29').

Viking controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Viking