Stromsgodset 1–2 Viking: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Viking

M. Mehnert 13'

H. Stengel 45' (OG)

P. Christiansen 38'

11/2/2025

Eliteserien · Round 27Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Stromsgodset32%

×Draw23%

Viking45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.76

Stromsgodset

1.44

Viking

1.76

Viking creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

1.82

creates per match

1.75

1.77

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Viking

1.75

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Viking

1.05

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Viking+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

55%

Stromsgodset or Viking

77%

Draw or Viking

68%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

14%

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

76%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

42%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

18%

Viking 1+ goals

83%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

41%

Viking (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Viking away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Viking defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Viking attack 1.75 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

32%

level

23%

Viking scores more

45%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Askildsen

Viking · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

M. Mehnert← O. Enersen

12'

Martin Owe RosethGoal cancelled

13'

M. Mehnert↳ M. Farji

30'

Marko Farji

38'

P. Christiansen↳ K. Askildsen

45+5'

Henrik Heggheim

45'

H. StengelOwn goal

46'

A. Conteh← E. Melkersen

46'

G. Stensness← M. Roseth

62'

S. Bjorshol← H. Heggheim

77'

S. Svendsen← S. Kvia-Egeskog

77'

N. D'Agostino← E. Austbo

84'

H. J. Haugen← P. Christiansen

89'

Marcus Mehnert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetViking

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots16

1.95Expected Goals (xG)1.71

7Corners13

11Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots16

6On Target8

3Off Target7

5Blocked1

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

378Total Passes477

303Accurate Passes385

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Viking

Viking beat Stromsgodset 2-1 in Eliteserien on November 2, 2025.

Goals: M. Mehnert (13'), P. Christiansen (38'), H. Stengel (45' o.g.).

Viking controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Viking