Viking 1–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stromsgodset

B. Bjarnason 89'

J. Braut Brunes 75'

5/7/2023

Eliteserien · Round 5SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Viking59%

×Draw21%

Stromsgodset20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.13

Viking

2.09

Stromsgodset

1.13

Viking creates 85% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

2.11

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Viking

2.11

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Viking

1.19

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Viking+0.52scores more

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Viking or draw

80%

Viking or Stromsgodset

79%

Draw or Stromsgodset

41%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

36%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

88%

Viking 2+ goals

62%

Viking 3+ goals

34%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

68%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

31%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

75%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.11 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.09

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Viking defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Viking scores more

59%

level

21%

Stromsgodset scores more

20%

Viking at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Stengel

Stromsgodset · M

7.7

Match Events

61'

N. D'Agostino← S. Svendsen

74'

J. Braut Brunes← J. Ekeland

75'

J. Braut Brunes↳ T. Gulliksen

76'

Y. de Lanlay← P. Yazbek

76'

B. Bjarnason← S. Bjørshol

77'

Viljar Myhra

81'

N. Sandberg← S. Pattynama

81'

E. Austbö← H. Tangen

88'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

89'

B. Bjarnason↳ N. D'Agostino

90'

H. Stenevik← T. Gulliksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingStromsgodset

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots15

5Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots15

5On Target5

7Off Target6

2Blocked4

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

551Total Passes402

446Accurate Passes306

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2