Viking 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Z. Tripic 58'

S. Kvia-Egeskog 2'

3/1/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Viking68%

×Draw17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.21

Viking

2.67

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.21

Viking creates 121% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

3.20

creates per match

1.63

0.80

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Viking

3.20

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.63

allows per match

Viking

0.80

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Viking or draw

85%

Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF

83%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

32%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

93%

Viking 2+ goals

74%

Viking 3+ goals

49%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

70%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

34%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

82%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 3.20 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.67

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.63 + Viking defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Viking scores more

68%

level

17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

15%

Viking at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Kvia-Egeskog

58'

Z. Tripic

Viking

Sarpsborg

1

12

4

24

21

33

8

14

10

11

17

30

6

8

10

⚽

18

19

23

25

26

⚽

Kvia-Eges

28

Mikaelsso

31

Fuglestad

Manager: Bjarte Aarsheim

Viking substitutes

1Ostbo2Haugen3Vevatne5Heggheim14Alte21Baertelsen24Auklend33HansenVisted7Moi

Manager: Martin Foyston

Sarpsborg 08 FF substitutes

31Jenssen32Wichne5Odegaard2Koch22Halvorsen6Sher23Sandberg29Haheim-Elveseter15Opoku