Viking 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

5/4/2025

Eliteserien · Round 5Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Viking45%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.52

Viking

1.83

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.52

Viking creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.75

creates per match

1.76

1.27

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Viking

1.75

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Viking

1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.92

+1.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+1.25scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viking or draw

68%

Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

55%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

84%

Viking 2+ goals

54%

Viking 3+ goals

28%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

78%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

58%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.75 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Viking defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viking scores more

45%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

32%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ndiaye

Sarpsborg 08 FF · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

Henrik Heggheim

51'

Joe Bell

60'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← J. Hansen

61'

C. Cappis← E. Austbo

70'

P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne

70'

A. Sanyang← F. Carstensen

75'

H. J. Haugen← H. Heggheim

79'

M. Odegaard← N. Sandberg

79'

M. Vestergaard← H. Tangen

85'

V. Vevatne← J. Urbancic

85'

H. Mikaelsson← S. Svendsen

85'

S. Gudjohnsen← D. Karlsbakk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingSarpsborg

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots9

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.84

12Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target3

5Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

502Total Passes361

430Accurate Passes292

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2