Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 Viking: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Viking

S. Gudjohnsen 90'

M. Opoku 90'

P. Reinhardsen 17'

P. Christiansen 43'

H. Falchener 40'

E. Austbo 7'

9/27/2025

Eliteserien · Round 23Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF29%

×Draw24%

Viking47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.71

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.31

Viking

1.71

Viking creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.90

1.53

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.50

Viking

1.90

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.53

Viking

1.13

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.05on par

Viking+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

53%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

71%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

13%

Viking wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

73%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

38%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

14%

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

51%

Viking 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

39%

Viking (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches

Viking away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.50 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Viking attack 1.90 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

29%

level

24%

Viking scores more

47%

Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

H. Falchener

Viking · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

E. Austbo↳ Z. Tripic

17'

P. Reinhardsen

40'

H. Falchener↳ K. Haugen

43'

P. Christiansen↳ K. Askildsen

56'

S. Christiansen← M. Jeahze

56'

M. Opoku← P. Reinhardsen

56'

S. Gudjohnsen← A. Trondsen

57'

N. D'Agostino← E. Austbo

58'

H. Heggheim← S. Bjorshol

67'

G. Stensness← P. Christiansen

67'

R. Alte← S. Kvia-Egeskog

69'

H. Bruseth← V. E. Halvorsen

75'

Heine Gikling Bruseth

87'

A. Hiim← E. Wichne

90'

A. Baertelsen← K. Askildsen

90'

S. Gudjohnsen

90'

M. Opoku↳ M. Koch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgViking

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots22

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.90

5Corners12

17Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots22

5On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked9

8Inside Box11

2Outside Box11

Passing

52%Possession48%

424Total Passes399

351Accurate Passes321

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0