Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking — Eliteserien 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF29%
Viking47%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Viking creates 31% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches
Viking away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.50 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31
Viking attack 1.90 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt
BrannViking
Rosenborg
Molde
Fredrikstad
Stromsgodset
KFUM OsloSarpsborg 08 FF
Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Ham-Kam
Tromso
Haugesund
Lillestrom
ODD BallklubbIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Viking on Sunday, 12 July 2026 at 17:15. The match is part of the Eliteserien 2024/2025 season.
Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 Viking
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Viking 1-0 in Eliteserien on July 12, 2026.
Goals: D. Karlsbakk (22').
Viking controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 18.
The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.