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Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11/12/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 28SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Viking45%
×Draw23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.52

Viking creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Viking
1.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Viking
1.27
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.92

finishing

Viking+1.25scores more
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viking or draw
68%
Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF
77%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
55%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
84%
Viking 2+ goals
54%
Viking 3+ goals
28%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
78%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
58%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.75 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Viking defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viking scores more
45%
level
23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
32%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Viking 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF

Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 in Eliteserien on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.