Viking vs Fredrikstad: Preview & Prediction

Viking

Preview

15:00

Fredrikstad

10/18/2026

Eliteserien · Round 24Lyse Arena

Big match

55%

Viking

model favours

55%22%23%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Viking55%

×Draw22%

Fredrikstad23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.14

Viking

1.90

Fredrikstad

1.14

Viking creates 67% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

2.14

creates per match

1.11

1.16

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Viking

2.14

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Viking

1.16

Fredrikstad

1.66

+0.61scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Viking+0.61scores more

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw

77%

Viking or Fredrikstad

78%

Draw or Fredrikstad

45%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

32%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

85%

Viking 2+ goals

56%

Viking 3+ goals

29%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

32%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

71%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 28 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.14 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.90

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Viking scores more

55%

level

22%

Fredrikstad scores more

23%

Viking at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

80% of Viking’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Viking score first in only 30% of matches
71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in 70% of Viking’s matches
Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)