Viking 3–0 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

V. Auklend 80'

P. Christiansen 62'

A. Baertelsen 8'

6/22/2025

Eliteserien · Round 10Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Viking54%

×Draw22%

Fredrikstad23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.15

Viking

1.89

Fredrikstad

1.15

Viking creates 64% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

2.16

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Viking

2.16

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Viking

1.18

Fredrikstad

1.61

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Viking+0.72scores more

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw

77%

Viking or Fredrikstad

78%

Draw or Fredrikstad

46%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

31%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

85%

Viking 2+ goals

56%

Viking 3+ goals

29%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

32%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

70%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.16 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.89

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Viking defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viking scores more

54%

level

22%

Fredrikstad scores more

23%

Viking at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Baertelsen

Viking · D

8.3

Match Events

8'

A. Baertelsen↳ Z. Tripic

55'

Vetle Auklend

57'

Zlatko Tripić

58'

H. Skogvold← D. Eid

62'

S. Bjorshol← E. Austbo

62'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← K. Askildsen

62'

P. Christiansen↳ J. Hansen

67'

O. Ohlenschlaeger← U. Fredriksen

71'

Oskar Öhlenschlaeger

72'

S. Svendsen← Z. Tripic

80'

V. Auklend↳ S. Svendsen

83'

S. Rafn← P. Metcalfe

83'

E. Granaas← R. R. Shein

84'

V. Vevatne← H. Heggheim

84'

M. Roseth← V. Auklend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingFredrikstad

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots14

1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.17

6Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target2

8Off Target5

2Blocked7

11Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

372Total Passes508

295Accurate Passes412

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Viking vs Fredrikstad

Viking beat Fredrikstad 3-0 in Eliteserien on June 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Baertelsen (8'), P. Christiansen (62'), V. Auklend (80').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs Fredrikstad