Fredrikstad 1–2 Viking: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Viking

O. Ohlenschlaeger 65'

G. Stensness 59'

P. Christiansen 45'

4/25/2026

Eliteserien · Round 6Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fredrikstad33%

×Draw25%

Viking42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.53

Fredrikstad

1.34

Viking

1.53

Viking creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

1.73

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Viking

1.73

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Viking

1.08

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

58%

Fredrikstad or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

67%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

74%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

39%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

78%

Viking 2+ goals

45%

Viking 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

44%

Viking (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Viking attack 1.73 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

33%

level

25%

Viking scores more

42%

Viking at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

G. Stensness

Viking · D

8.3

Match Events

45'

P. Christiansen↳ N. Fuglestad

59'

G. Stensness↳ Z. Tripic

63'

F. Ghebreyohannes← F. Holme

63'

S. Laghzaoui← H. Skogvold

65'

O. Ohlenschlaeger

70'

E. Austbo← N. Fuglestad

70'

T. Moi← J. Bell

75'

E. Granaas← S. Sorlokk

78'

Kristoffer Askildsen

89'

A. Baertelsen← Z. Tripic

90+5'

Tobias Moi

90'

K. Okpaleke← L. Owusu

90'

S. Bjorshol← H. Heggheim

90'

O. Visted← S. Kvia-Egeskog

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadViking

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots16

0.85Expected Goals (xG)2.46

3Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots16

3On Target5

7Off Target6

2Blocked5

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

401Total Passes552

315Accurate Passes462

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3