Fredrikstad 3–2 Viking: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Viking

S. Sørløkk 55'

S. Molde 42'

F. Fall 14'

L. Salvesen 84'

S. Kvia-Egeskog 79'

9/22/2024

Eliteserien · Round 23Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fredrikstad33%

×Draw25%

Viking42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.53

Fredrikstad

1.34

Viking

1.53

Viking creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

1.73

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Viking

1.73

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Viking

1.08

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

58%

Fredrikstad or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

67%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

74%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

39%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

78%

Viking 2+ goals

45%

Viking 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

44%

Viking (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Viking attack 1.73 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

33%

level

25%

Viking scores more

42%

Viking at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Fischer

Fredrikstad · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

F. Fall↳ M. Bjørlo

28'

Herman Johan Haugen

36'

J. Kjær← F. Fall

42'

S. Molde↳ J. Magnússon

45+3'

Simen Kvia-EgeskogPenalty cancelled

46'

H. Heggheim← H. Haugen

46'

L. Salvesen← H. Finndell

55'

S. Sørløkk↳ H. Skogvold

65'

N. Fuglestad← C. Cappis

68'

S. Tijani← S. Sørløkk

74'

Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

77'

H. Johansen← H. Skogvold

77'

D. Eid← S. Molde

77'

K. Løkberg← Y. de Lanlay

77'

J. Hansen← P. Christiansen

79'

S. Kvia-Egeskog↳ L. Salvesen

84'

L. Salvesen↳ S. Kvia-Egeskog

89'

Samson Tijani

90+4'

Morten Bjorlo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadViking

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots23

1.89Expected Goals (xG)2.29

7Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots23

5On Target11

7Off Target8

2Blocked4

9Inside Box14

5Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

327Total Passes529

215Accurate Passes410

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0