Fredrikstad 0–1 Viking: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viking

H. Falchener 72'

11/23/2025

Eliteserien · Round 29Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fredrikstad33%

×Draw25%

Viking42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.53

Fredrikstad

1.34

Viking

1.53

Viking creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

1.73

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Viking

1.73

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Viking

1.08

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

58%

Fredrikstad or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

67%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

74%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

39%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

78%

Viking 2+ goals

45%

Viking 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

44%

Viking (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Viking attack 1.73 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

33%

level

25%

Viking scores more

42%

Viking at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

H. Falchener

Viking · D

8.3

Match Events

36'

Leonard Owusu

56'

Maxwell Woledzi

60'

Rocco Robert Shein

61'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← J. Hansen

63'

Henrik Sælebakke Falchener

72'

H. Falchener↳ Z. Tripic

75'

H. J. Haugen← E. Austbo

75'

H. Heggheim← S. Bjorshol

76'

S. Owusu← S. Kvile

82'

L. Begby← H. Skogvold

87'

Solomon Owusu

87'

G. Stensness← P. Christiansen

87'

V. Berisha← Z. Tripic

88'

Oskar Øhlenschlaeger

88'

Simen Kvia-Egeskog

89'

K. Okpaleke← L. Owusu

90+1'

Jóannes Bjartalíð

90+8'

Herman Johan Haugen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadViking

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots16

0.61Expected Goals (xG)0.90

3Corners5

23Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots16

4On Target8

6Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

374Total Passes483

288Accurate Passes402

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

23Fouls0

6Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Viking

Viking beat Fredrikstad 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 23, 2025.

Goals: H. Falchener (72').

Viking controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Viking