Victoria 1–3 Spartanii Selemet: Result & Stats

Victoria

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Spartanii Selemet

V. Cricimari 81'

S. Nazar 65'

V. Beseti 28'

E. Celeadnic 25'

5/6/2023

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 9Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria59%

×Draw20%

Spartanii Selemet21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VictoriaExpected goals in this matchSpartanii Selemet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.31

Victoria

2.31

Spartanii Selemet

1.31

Victoria creates 76% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 48 away

2.29

creates per match

1.00

1.62

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Victoria

2.29

Spartanii Selemet

1.00

allows per match

Victoria

1.62

Spartanii Selemet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Spartanii Selemet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Victoria or draw

79%

Victoria or Spartanii Selemet

80%

Draw or Spartanii Selemet

41%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+

38%

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals

90%

Victoria 2+ goals

67%

Victoria 3+ goals

40%

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

73%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

38%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)

74%

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 2.29 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Victoria defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Victoria scores more

59%

level

20%

Spartanii Selemet scores more

21%

Victoria at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

E. Celeadnic

28'

V. Beseti

65'

S. Nazar

81'

V. Cricimari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff