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Spartanii Selemet vs Victoria Bardar — Cupa 2020

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemetadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
P. Nazari 120+3' (pen)
P. Gurulea 120+1' (pen)
3/2/2025CupaCupa · Round of 16Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spartanii Selemet23%
×Draw17%
Victoria Bardar60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
1.88
Victoria Bardar
3.04

Victoria Bardar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
1.83
Victoria Bardar
3.58

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
2.50
Victoria Bardar
1.92

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
40%
Spartanii Selemet or Victoria Bardar
83%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
77%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
11%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
85%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
56%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
29%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
95%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
80%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
27%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.83 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
23%
level
17%
Victoria Bardar scores more
60%

Victoria Bardar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
V. GutuMissed penalty
120+1'
P. GuruleaPenalty
120+2'
I. OpreaMissed penalty
120+2'
N. RotaruMissed penalty
120+3'
L. StefanMissed penalty
120+3'
P. NazariPenalty
120+4'
V. GurgurovMissed penalty
Spartanii
Victoria
A. Sosnovschi
Manager: A. Sosnovschi
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov

Cupa: Spartanii Selemet 0–0 Victoria Bardar

Spartanii Selemet and Victoria Bardar drew 0-0 in Cupa on March 2, 2025.

Goals: P. Gurulea (120+1' pen), P. Nazari (120+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Nisporeni.