Spartanii Selemet 4–1 Victoria: Result & Stats

Spartanii Selemet

FT

4 – 1

Victoria

4/9/2023

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 4Stadionul Selemet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Spartanii Selemet31%

×Draw22%

Victoria48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartanii SelemetExpected goals in this matchVictoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.03

Spartanii Selemet

1.59

Victoria

2.03

Victoria creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

1.13

creates per match

1.69

2.37

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet

1.13

Victoria

1.69

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet

2.37

Victoria

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Victoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw

52%

Spartanii Selemet or Victoria

78%

Draw or Victoria

69%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

14%

Victoria wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

80%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

47%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

21%

Victoria 1+ goals

87%

Victoria 2+ goals

60%

Victoria 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

39%

Victoria (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Victoria away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Victoria defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Victoria attack 1.69 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more

31%

level

22%

Victoria scores more

48%

Victoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff