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Victoria Bardar vs Spartanii Selemet — Super Liga 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
I. Sandu 89'
A. Rusu 77'
V. Gurgurov 42', 9'
N. Rotaru 52'
3/15/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 2Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Bardar59%
×Draw20%
Spartanii Selemet21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
2.31
Spartanii Selemet
1.31

Victoria Bardar creates 76% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 48 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.29
Spartanii Selemet
1.00

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
1.62
Spartanii Selemet
2.33

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
79%
Victoria Bardar or Spartanii Selemet
80%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
41%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
38%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
90%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
67%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
40%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
73%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
38%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
74%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.29 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
59%
level
20%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
21%

Victoria Bardar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
V. Gurgurov
42'
V. Gurgurov
52'
N. Rotaru
77'
A. Rusu
89'
I. Sandu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Bardar vs Spartanii Selemet

Victoria Bardar beat Spartanii Selemet 4-1 in Super Liga on March 15, 2024.

Goals: V. Gurgurov (9', 42'), N. Rotaru (52'), A. Rusu (77'), I. Sandu (89').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.