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Victoria United vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
1 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
11/6/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United53%
×Draw27%
Unisport Bafang20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.44
Unisport Bafang
0.78

Victoria United creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 38 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.83
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Victoria United
0.50
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
80%
Victoria United or Unisport Bafang
73%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
47%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
26%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
76%
Victoria United 2+ goals
42%
Victoria United 3+ goals
18%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
54%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
18%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
72%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Victoria United scores more
53%
level
27%
Unisport Bafang scores more
20%

Victoria United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Unisport Bafang

Victoria United beat Unisport Bafang 1-0 in Elite Two on November 6, 2022.