Unisport Bafang 2–1 Victoria United: Result & Stats

Unisport Bafang

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Victoria United

C. Larfey 64'

V. Koloto 11'

F. Manga 90'

2/8/2026

Elite One · Round 4Stade Municipal de Bafang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Unisport Bafang46%

×Draw27%

Victoria United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unisport BafangExpected goals in this matchVictoria United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Unisport Bafang

1.42

Victoria United

1.04

Unisport Bafang creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Unisport Bafang

1.15

Victoria United

1.20

allows per match

Unisport Bafang

0.88

Victoria United

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Victoria United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw

72%

Unisport Bafang or Victoria United

73%

Draw or Victoria United

54%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+

22%

Victoria United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals

76%

Unisport Bafang 2+ goals

41%

Unisport Bafang 3+ goals

17%

Victoria United 1+ goals

65%

Victoria United 2+ goals

28%

Victoria United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)

62%

Victoria United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.15 + Victoria United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Victoria United attack 1.20 + Unisport Bafang defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more

46%

level

27%

Victoria United scores more

28%

Unisport Bafang at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Koloto

64'

C. Larfey

90'

F. Manga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff