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Unisport Bafang vs Victoria United — Elite Two 2020

Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
FT
0 – 3
Victoria United
Victoria United
2/12/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Unisport Bafang40%
×Draw28%
Victoria United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unisport Bafang
1.26
Victoria United
1.11

Unisport Bafang creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 12 away

creates per match

Unisport Bafang
1.77
Victoria United
1.17

allows per match

Unisport Bafang
1.05
Victoria United
0.75

finishing

Unisport Bafang+0.00on par
Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unisport Bafang ↓

Victoria United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unisport Bafang or draw
68%
Unisport Bafang or Victoria United
72%
Draw or Victoria United
60%

Winning margin

Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
18%
Victoria United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
72%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
36%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
13%
Victoria United 1+ goals
67%
Victoria United 2+ goals
30%
Victoria United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
55%
Victoria United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unisport Bafang at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unisport Bafang attack 1.77 + Victoria United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.26

Victoria United attack 1.17 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unisport Bafang scores more
40%
level
28%
Victoria United scores more
32%

Unisport Bafang at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unisport Bafang vs Victoria United

Victoria United beat Unisport Bafang 3-0 in Elite Two on February 12, 2023.