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Victoria Bardar vs Iskra — League #395 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Iskra
Iskra
9/19/2025League #395League #395 · Round 8Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Victoria Bardar51%
×Draw18%
Iskra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
3.01
Iskra
2.37

Victoria Bardar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.85
Iskra
2.50

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
2.23
Iskra
3.17

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
69%
Victoria Bardar or Iskra
82%
Draw or Iskra
49%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
33%
Iskra wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
95%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
80%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
56%
Iskra 1+ goals
91%
Iskra 2+ goals
68%
Iskra 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
62%
Iskra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Iskra away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.85 + Iskra defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.01

Iskra attack 2.50 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
51%
level
18%
Iskra scores more
31%

Victoria Bardar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Victoria Bardar 2–6 Iskra

Iskra beat Victoria Bardar 6-2 in League #395 on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.