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Iskra vs Victoria Bardar — League #395 2026

Iskra
Iskra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
11/29/2024League #395League #395 · Round 14Stadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iskra46%
×Draw23%
Victoria Bardar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.50

Iskra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.33
Victoria Bardar
1.50

allows per match

Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
2.40

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
69%
Iskra or Victoria Bardar
77%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
54%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
25%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
84%
Iskra 2+ goals
55%
Iskra 3+ goals
28%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
44%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
60%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.33 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Victoria Bardar attack 1.50 + Iskra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Iskra scores more
46%
level
23%
Victoria Bardar scores more
31%

Iskra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Iskra 1–0 Victoria Bardar

Iskra beat Victoria Bardar 1-0 in League #395 on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul CS Real Succes in Chişinău.