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Iskra vs Victoria Bardar — League #395 2026

Iskra
Iskra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
8/8/2025League #395League #395 · Round 3Stadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iskra44%
×Draw22%
Victoria Bardar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.90
Victoria Bardar
1.65

Iskra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.40
Victoria Bardar
1.50

allows per match

Iskra
1.80
Victoria Bardar
2.40

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
66%
Iskra or Victoria Bardar
78%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
56%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
24%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
85%
Iskra 2+ goals
56%
Iskra 3+ goals
29%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
81%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
49%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
56%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.40 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Victoria Bardar attack 1.50 + Iskra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Iskra scores more
44%
level
22%
Victoria Bardar scores more
34%

Iskra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iskra vs Victoria Bardar

Iskra beat Victoria Bardar 1-0 in League #395 on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița in Rîbniţa.