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Victoria Bardar vs Iskra — League #395 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
8 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Iskra
Iskra
10/18/2024League #395League #395 · Round 9Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Victoria Bardar42%
×Draw18%
Iskra39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
2.87
Iskra
2.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.73
Iskra
3.00

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
2.55
Iskra
3.00

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
61%
Victoria Bardar or Iskra
82%
Draw or Iskra
58%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
26%
Iskra wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
94%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
77%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
53%
Iskra 1+ goals
94%
Iskra 2+ goals
76%
Iskra 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
52%
Iskra (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Iskra away — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.73 + Iskra defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.87

Iskra attack 3.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
42%
level
18%
Iskra scores more
39%

Victoria Bardar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Victoria Bardar 8–3 Iskra

Victoria Bardar beat Iskra 8-3 in League #395 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.