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VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Schalke 04 — Bundesliga 2018

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
3/13/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 25VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg54%
×Draw23%
FC Schalke 0423%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
1.86
FC Schalke 04
1.14

VfL Wolfsburg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.60
FC Schalke 04
0.91

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.36
FC Schalke 04
2.13

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
77%
VfL Wolfsburg or FC Schalke 04
77%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
46%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
31%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
84%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
55%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
28%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
68%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
32%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
70%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 105 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.60 + FC Schalke 04 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC Schalke 04 attack 0.91 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
54%
level
23%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
23%

VfL Wolfsburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Schalke 04

VfL Wolfsburg beat FC Schalke 04 5-0 in Bundesliga on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Wolfsburg.