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FC Schalke 04 vs VfL Wolfsburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Schalke 0455%
×Draw18%
VfL Wolfsburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schalke 04
2.99
VfL Wolfsburg
2.12

FC Schalke 04 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Schalke 04
4.38
VfL Wolfsburg
2.60

allows per match

FC Schalke 04
1.63
VfL Wolfsburg
1.60

finishing

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par
VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schalke 04 ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

FC Schalke 04 or draw
73%
FC Schalke 04 or VfL Wolfsburg
82%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg
45%

Winning margin

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
36%
VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
95%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
79%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
56%
VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
88%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
62%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
67%
VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schalke 04 at home — creates 4.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schalke 04 attack 4.38 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.99

VfL Wolfsburg attack 2.60 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Schalke 04 scores more
55%
level
18%
VfL Wolfsburg scores more
27%

FC Schalke 04 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Schalke 04 2–3 VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg beat FC Schalke 04 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in Almancil.